Final preelection polls suggest that tactic may have diminished the far right’s chances of an absolute majority. But Le Pen’s party has wider and deeper support than ever before, and it’s up to voters to decide. The National Rally and its allies finished ahead in Round 1 with around one-third just2trade review of the votes. A coalition of center-left, hard-left and greens parties called the New Popular Front came in second position, well ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s struggling centrist alliance.
That scenario would lead to more turmoil and uncertainty as the National Rally tries to persuade new MPs to come on board with it in a historic mission to put the far right in charge of France. That’s why seat projections for the RN after the first round vary widely, from 230 seats to 310. The results means Macron’s centrist allies almost certainly won’t be able to implement their pro-business proposals such a promise to overhaul unemployment benefits. Emerging market debt has shown resilience in a year that has brought significant market volatility and uncertainty in global trade relations. In this environment, we think short duration bonds could be a useful way to diversify portfolios.
Why is a ‘temporary’ government needed?
If the party doesn’t win a majority but still has a large number of seats, Macron could name Bardella anyway, though the National tickmill review Rally might refuse out of fears that its government could be ejected in a no-confidence vote. In the frantic week between the two rounds, more than 200 centrist and left-wing candidates pulled out of races to boost the chances of their moderate rivals and try to keep National Rally candidates from winning. The tax promises of the two presidential candidates will directly impact the French equity market. If Emmanuel Macron is elected, his planned program on lowering corporate taxes and boosting competitiveness could boost the CAC40.
France elections and markets: a “Liz Truss moment” in the making?
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The prime minister is accountable to parliament, leads the government and introduces bills. The new prime minister might be unable or unwilling to seriously challenge Macron’s defense and foreign policy powers. While a fractured parliament is not uncommon in Europe, France has not experienced that in its modern history. That sends the country into uncharted territory that will involve tense negotiations to form a new government and name a prime minister, who focuses on domestic policy and shares power with the president. “Everywhere we’re seeing reports that markets are celebrating on the back of Macron and Le Pen making it through to the second round.
Europe has more cardinals than is fair
Since Macron’s bombshell announcement of a snap vote, the political landscape in France has been changing at lightning speed, with new alliances emerging overnight and nasty break-ups playing out in public. That makes it difficult to make reliable predictions about seats and coalitions. It’s worth remembering that during the presidential elections in 2017 and 2022… on the left, everyone held that line.
- He finished 2016 with an overall profit of 77% and so far in 2017, has kept his risk score lower than previous years.
- As Macron was declared winner, the Euro reached a six-month high against the US Dollar and the FTSE, DAX and CAC all started the next day with impressive gains.
- While Macron’s coalition is polling third nationwide, there is still some glimmer of hope they will not be completely wiped out in the first round.
- We see a risk of large institutional investors turning their back on France’s debt as their local interest rates become more attractive.
- On the other hand, if Le Pen beats all predictions and wins, it is very likely that markets will tumble, as France and the rest of the world wake up to a new economic reality.
FRANCE NATIONAL PARLIAMENT POLL OF POLLS
Of the 546 candidates who will be representing the new alliance, 229 will be backed by LFI compared to 175 for the Socialists, 92 for the Greens and 50 for the Communists. While the Greens and Socialists have indicated that would be their policy, Macron’s camp and Mélenchon’s Left Unbowed have left that unclear. On June 9, French President Emmanuel Macron shocked the nation by calling a snap election after suffering a humiliating defeat at the hands of the far-right National Rally in the European election.
Check out his interview below and his thoughts on the second round of the French election. On June 9, French President Emmanuel Macron shocked the nation by calling a snap election after suffering a humiliating defeat at the hands of the far-right National Rally in the European Parliament election. His goal was to stop the advances of the right, but it’s a big gamble that looks like it has badly backfired. The field of candidates hoping to succeed Emmanuel Macron is starting to take shape two years ahead of the next election. It’s election season in France – there’s never been a better time to read Playbook Paris.
- In conclusion, investors should expect a higher risk premium and market volatility in France, which could potentially extend across the wider euro zone if France’s problems escalate.
- In addition, his challenges now include navigating the stormy waters of the EU, taking part in the Brexit process and cooperating with US President Donald Trump.
- Surprise polling projections in France showed a leftist coalition that came together to try to keep the far right from power has won the most parliamentary seats in Sunday’s runoff elections.
The extent and timing of this volatility is difficult to predict at this stage. But once the political situation becomes clearer, opportunities to add to French portfolios may also emerge given the robust underlying fundamentals in many instances. This should be the case especially after the first round of the elections on 7 July, with potentially attractive entry points emerging as the make-up of the government and its policies become clearer. The alliance between the radical France Unbowed, the Socialist Party, the Greens and the Communist Party held together for the national vote, but lacks coherence and a clear leader.
There is no firm timeline for when Macron must name a prime minister, and no firm rule that he has to pick someone from the largest party or bloc in parliament. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal offered his resignation Monday but Macron instead asked him to remain “temporarily” after election results left the government in limbo. Attal says he can stay on through the upcoming Paris Olympics or as long as needed. Jean-Luc Mélenchon and other leaders of the hard-left France Unbowed party have been sharply criticized by other more moderate leftists for their stance on the conflict. Hard-left politicians, who have accused Israel of pursuing genocide against Palestinians, have faced accusations of antisemitism, which they strongly deny. Some Macron allies are instead pushing to form a government around the centrists and the conservative Republicans who together with their allies came in fourth with over 60 seats.
The far-right chief qualifies for the presidential runoff, in which he will face centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan. In the end it was France’s left-wing bloc — not Marine Len Pen’s far-right National Rally — that came out on top. POLITICO analyzes the vote that redrew French politics, in which the left beat Marine Le Pen’s far right. You should seek advice from an independent and suitably licensed financial advisor and ensure that you have the risk appetite, relevant experience and knowledge before you decide to trade. A deadly wave of avian influenza, industry-led policy and deepening ethical and biological risks are exposing flaws in the world’s most efficient meat machine.
If her party leads a government that has a bumpy ride in office, it could reduce her chances of seizing the big prize. If the far right gets a majority in the parliament, the French president would have to enter into a “cohabitation” arrangement with the National Rally and appoint a far-right prime minister. Bardella, the president of the National Rally, has said he would not seek to lead a government unless he had a majority.
The left is resurgent, challenging Macron and the far right
Sunday’s turnout was the highest in 20 years, unlike in previous elections when turnout tended to drop off after the first round. A comparison with the results of the 2022 election shows how the National Rally has expanded across France and its overseas territories — but also that the left-wing New Popular Front won more constituencies. But a powerful anti-Le Pen movement, mobilized after the first round in the French election, collaborated to stop RN candidates from winning power. With the UK on its way out, France is set to become the second-largest economy in the Union – and another divorce could signal the beginning of the EU’s collapse. Internally, Le Pen promises to keep the 35-hour workweek and retirement age of 60 in place. These decisions could limit the flexibility of the French workforce and in turn could hinder the processes needed to rejuvenate the country’s economy.
It’s a parliamentary election, meaning that Macron’s own position is not at stake — he is due to remain president until 2027. That said, he’s likely to have to work with a new government and prime minister who may well be hostile toward him, raising the specter of deadlock or chaos. The National Rally’s Jordan Bardella is a leading candidate to take the PM job if the party wins. The New Popular Front is definitely striking a chord with voters; current projections have the alliance winning 180 to 210 seats. That’s still some distance from the 289 seats needed for a majority, and the left would need to form a coalition if it aimed to put forward a prime minister who would win parliamentary approval.
His goal was to stop the advances of the right, but it’s a big gamble that may backfire. Yet today, both the far-right and the leftist coalition’s views in these areas differ radically from Macron’s approach and would likely be a subject of tension during a potential cohabitation. During previous cohabitations, defense and foreign policies were considered the informal domain of the president, who was usually able to find compromises with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad. Such a situation requires lawmakers to build consensus across parties to agree on government positions and legislation. While not uncommon in other European countries, modern France has never experienced a parliament with no dominant party.
The picture in the end is one of fragmentation, with no single group close to getting even 200 seats in the 577-seat legislature. The three main groups — the left, Maron’s centrists and the far right — will all struggle to assemble a stable majority, portending stalemate and paralysis in Paris. In the days following the first round more lexatrade review than 200 candidates pulled out of their races, often in order to make way for a candidate with a better chance of defeating the National Rally. When the results came in on Sunday night, Le Pen’s party — now led by Jordan Bardella — had won 142 seats, 50 more than in 2022 but a long way from an absolute majority of 289. Internally, Macron’s plans for the French economy are seen as a rejuvenating factor for the EU’s second-largest economy. While his rival Le Pen’s campaign made populistic promises such as locking-in the 35-hour workweek and keeping retirement age at 60, Macron will try to renegotiate both factors.
